Last week saw stocks close markedly lower as short-term traders were discouraged by hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve Chair, who put a damper on the likelihood of another interest rate decrease this year. Among the market sectors, energy, financials, and utilities closed the week higher, while the remaining sectors ended the week in the red, led by health care. Ten-year Treasury yields hovered near the highest level since June, reflecting the diminished probability of interest rate cuts. Crude oil and gold prices declined while the dollar advanced.
Last Week’s Economic News
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The Consumer Price Index rose in October. For the 12 months ended in October, the CPI increased 2.6%,
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The Producer Price Index rose in October following a bump in September. Producer prices moved up 2.4% for the 12 months ended in October.
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Retail and food services sales rose in October and increased for the 12 months ended in October. Retail trade sales were up last month and up from last year. Nonstore (online) retailer sales were up from October 2023, while food services and drinking places sales increased over the same period.
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Import prices rose in October following a decline in September. The October increase was the largest one-month advance since April 2024. Fuel prices rose 1.5% last month after declining 7.5% in September, marking the largest monthly increase since April 2024. Despite the October increase, import fuel prices declined 13.6% for the year ended in October. Nonfuel import prices increased 0.2% for the second consecutive month in October. Import prices increased 0.8% from October 2023 to October 2024. Prices for exports increased 0.8% in October, which was the largest monthly rise since August 2023. Higher prices for nonagricultural and agricultural exports in October contributed to the monthly increase. Despite the October rise, export prices declined 0.1% over the past year.
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According to the Federal Reserve’s latest report, industrial production declined in October after falling 0.5% the previous month.
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October 2024, the first month of fiscal year 2025, saw a monthly government deficit of $257.5 billion, well above the $66.6 billion deficit reported for October 2023. Government receipts were $326.8 billion, while expenditures totaled $584.2 billion.
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The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.052 per gallon on November 11.
Eye on the Week Ahead
The focus is on the housing sector this week. The report on housing starts for October is out on Tuesday. September saw the number of housing starts and issued building permits decline. Also out this week is the report on existing home sales for October. Sales fell in September from the previous month, as did the median sales price.
Have a nice week!
Sincerely,
Robert G. Carpenter