Tech shares helped the NASDAQ close up last week, but the other major stock indexes didn’t fare as well. Renewed concerns about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy dampened investor appetite for risk. Bond prices also faded during the week, driving yields higher. Crude oil prices climbed higher as investors monitored ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Gold prices continued to advance and have risen over 33.0% from the beginning of the year.
Last Week’s Economic News
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September, the last month of the fiscal year, saw the government budget enjoy a surplus. For fiscal year 2024, the deficit was $1,832.8 trillion, $137.6 billion above the FY23 deficit of $1,695.2 trillion. Compared to the prior fiscal year, FY24 saw government receipts increase by roughly $479.5 billion, while government outlays increased by $617.0 billion.
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New orders for manufactured durable goods in September, down three of the last four months, decreased, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This followed a 0.8% August decrease.
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Existing-home sales decreased in September and 3.5% from one year ago.
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Sales of new single-family homes in September reached the highest level since May 2023 after rising 4.1% over the prior month’s total.
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The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.144 per gallon on October 21.
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For the week ended October 19, there were 227,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week’s level.
Eye on the Week Ahead
There are several market-moving economic reports released this week. Among those reports is the initial estimate of gross domestic product for the third quarter. The second quarter GDP estimated that the economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.0%. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve, is released within the personal income and outlays report. August saw prices tick up 0.1%, while the annual rate of growth rose 2.2%. Lastly, the latest employment data for October is released on Friday. September’s report revealed an unexpected 254,000 new jobs, a figure well above consensus estimates. It is likely that the September figure is adjusted downward.
Have a nice week!
Sincerely,
Robert G. Carpenter