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Weekly Economic Update
September 5, 2017
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Last Week’s Economic Headlines
- The latest report on the second-quarter gross domestic product proved to be very solid, as the GDP climbed to 3.0% – 0.4 percentage point higher than the first estimate. The first-quarter GDP increased 1.2%. Economic growth was led by increases in consumer spending, nonresidential (business) fixed investment, federal government spending, and private inventory investment. Downturns occurred in residential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and a deceleration in exports. Increased consumer spending could be related to weak price inflation. How the Fed views this information when it meets later this month could go a long way in determining whether interest rates are raised.
- The number of new hires took a step back in August with only 156,000 jobs added during the month. Job gains occurred in manufacturing, construction, professional and technical services, health care, and mining. Employment growth has averaged 176,000 per month thus far this year, down from the average monthly gain of 187,000 in 2016. The unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%. The labor force participation rate, at 62.9%, was unchanged in August and has shown little movement on net over the past year. The employment-population ratio, at 60.1%, was little changed over the month and thus far this year. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours in August. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $0.03 to $26.39, after rising by $0.09 in July. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by $0.65, or 2.5%.
- Consumers’ income and spending increased in July but not prices, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal (pre-tax) income increased $65.6 billion (0.4%) in July while disposable (after-tax) personal income (DPI) increased $39.6 billion (0.3%). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $44.7 billion (0.3%). Prices for consumer goods and services as measured by the PCE price index increased a marginal 0.1%, as did core (excluding food and energy) PCE.
- The international trade in goods deficit expanded to $65.1 billion in July, up $1.1 billion from $64.0 billion in June. Exports of goods for July were $127.1 billion, $1.6 billion less than June exports. Imports of goods for July were $192.2 billion, $0.5 billion less than June imports.
- According to the August survey from IHS Market, manufacturing output was the weakest since June 2016. U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) registered 52.8 in August, down slightly from July’s reading of 53.3. Since a reading over 50 signifies growth, manufacturing output grew in August, but at a slower pace than July’s growth. The purchasing managers index from the Institute for Supply Management showed output increased last month. The August PMI® registered 58.8%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from the July reading of 56.3%. The survey sample size for the purchasing managers’ index of the ISM is generally smaller than the one used by Market, which may explain discrepancies between the reports.
- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased to 122.9 in August, up from July’s reading of 120.0. Survey respondents were bullish on current economic conditions, while their short-term expectations were tepid. The Index of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers increased from July’s 93.4% to 96.9% in August.
- In the week ended August 26, the advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 236,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 234,000 to 235,000. The advance insured unemployment rate remained at 1.4%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance during the week ended August 19 was 1,942,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 1,954,000.
BWFA Eye on the Week Ahead
The Gulf region continues to recover from the effects of Hurricane Harvey. It will be several weeks before the economic impact of that devastating storm can be measured. July’s report on international trade for goods and services is out this week. Last week’s report showed that the goods trade deficit expanded in July. Despite efforts on the part of the current administration to control foreign trade, imports continue to expand at a faster rate than exports, pushing the trade deficit higher. North Korea continues to gain headlines in the news and we are not sure that will be resolved in short fashion. As a result we continue to be very diversified in our approach to investments. We like certain sectors like technology, healthcare and financials more than others.
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What Happens When a Loved One Passes Away?
How can you prepare?
Thursday, September 7, 2017
11:45 AM – 1:00 PM
Lunch will be provided
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Only 10 Seats Available!
Reserve your spot today!
Presented by:
Managing Director,
Wealth Management
Attorney
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Baltimore Washington Financial Advisors invites you to a discussion on:
- What are the first things we should do?
- What happens if he/she has done no estate planning?
- What do you do with his/her will or trust?
- Should I continue to pay his/her bills?
- What should you do with his/her home?
- What is involved in settling a will or trust?
- Can a will or trust be contested?
Come join us as we discuss these issues and more!
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PART ONE: The Difference Between Alzheimer’s and Dementia with Guest Speaker Penny Graf
Tuesday, September 12, 2017
11:45 AM – 1:00 PM
Lunch will be provided
PART TWO: Corporate Trust Services
With Special Speaker Steve Elville
Thursday, September 28, 2017
11:45 AM – 1:00 PM
Lunch will be provided
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Presented by:
Managing Director,
Wealth Management
Steve Elville, Esq.
Principal
Elville and Associates
Penny Graf LCSW-C,
C-ASWCM, OSW-C
Eldercare
Part One
Only 4 Seats left!!!
Part Two
Limited Seating Available!
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Baltimore Washington Financial Advisors, Elville and Associates along with Ferretto Eldercare Consulting, invite you to this interactive, 2 -part Seminar Series on “Alzheimer’s vs. Dementia” and “How Corporate Trust Services could benefit you”
Topics Included in Part One:
- Many types of dementia’s – no one size fits all
- A thorough medical evaluation is key
- Gather the team
Topics included in Part Two:
- What is a Personal Trust?
- What are some reasons to consider appointing a corporate trustee?
- What should you be concerned about “successor trustee risk?”
Come join us as we discuss these issues and more!
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Savvy Social Security & Planning
Thursday, September 14, 2017
6:00 PM – 7:30 PM
Dinner will be provided
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RESERVE YOUR SPOT TODAY!!
Presented by:
Managing Director,
Wealth Management
Thad Ismart,
CFP®
Senior Financial Planner
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Baltimore Washington Financial Advisors invites you to a discussion on:
- How work, age, and marital status affect your benefits
- Synchronizing spousal benefits
- Minimizing taxes on your benefits
- Integrating social security with other retirement income
Come join us as we discuss these issues and more!
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Selecting your State of Residence in Retirement
Tuesday, September 19, 2017
11:45 AM – 1:00 PM
Lunch will be provided
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Sold Out!!!
Please email Eve Kennedy if you would like to be added to the wait list
ekennedy@bwfa.com
Presented by:
Managing Director,
Wealth Management
Thad Ismart,
CFP®
Senior Financial Planner
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Baltimore Washington Financial Advisors invites you to a discussion on:
- What state is best?
- How much will it cost to stay in Maryland?
- How to decide where you will retire
- Should you purchase or rent?
- Healthcare costs by state
- Differences in state and local income taxes
- Estate planning and estate taxes by state
- Property and sales tax by state
- Cost of living by state
Come join us as we discuss these issues and more!
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What You Need to Know About Retirement –
Before You Retire
Tuesday, September 21, 2017
06:00 PM – 7:30 PM
Dinner will be provided
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Sign up today and secure your spot!!!
Only 7 seats available!
Presented by:
Managing Director,
Wealth Management
Thad Ismart,
CFP®
Senior Financial Planner
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Baltimore Washington Financial Advisors invites you to a discussion on:
- Avoiding the common mistakes
- Have you saved enough?
- Creating a vision- where will you live, what will you be doing, who will you live near?
- Evaluating your retirement savings
- Social Security
- Healthcare options/choices
- Creating a retirement paycheck
- Tax implications
- Asset Allocation Strategies for retirement
Come join us as we discuss these issues and more!
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Estate Planning: How to Avoid Probate Court
with guest speaker
Gary Greenwald, P.C.
Tuesday, September 26, 2017
06:00 PM – 7:30 PM
Dinner will be provided
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Sign up today and secure your spot!!!
Limited seats available!
Presented by:
Managing Director,
Wealth Management
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Baltimore Washington Financial Advisors invites you to an estate planning workshop on:
- Avoid the time and expense of probate upon your death
- Reduce the cost of settling your affairs upon your death by 60%-70%
- Be confident that you, and not some court, determines who will be in charge of your assets upon disability or death
- Make sure that if your surviving spouse remarried, the assets you left to him or her pass to your children and grandchildren, and not to his or her new spouse
- Reduce any estate taxes when you die
- Shield the inheritance you are leaving to your children from their creditors and the divorce court
Come join us as we discuss these issues and more!
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