The Markets (as of market close March 13, 2026)
Stocks declined for a third consecutive week as rising oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions fueled inflation concerns and drove investors away from risk assets. Major indexes fell to their lowest levels of the year, with financials and consumer discretionary leading the declines. Energy, consumer staples, and utilities were among the few sectors to post gains as stock speculators rotated toward defensive areas. Crude oil remained well above $98 per barrel, up more than 70% for the year, while Treasury yields climbed, with the 10-year note rising 15 basis points to its highest level since January. The U.S. dollar also strengthened amid ongoing global uncertainty.
Last Week’s Economic News
-
Consumer prices increased slightly in February, while year-over-year inflation remained at 2.4%. Shelter costs were the largest contributor to the monthly increase.
-
Core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose a bit in February and 2.5% over the past year.
-
The PCE price index increased 0.3% in January, while core PCE rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% from a year earlier.
-
Fourth-quarter GDP growth slowed to 0.7%, down sharply from 4.4% in the third quarter as government spending and exports declined.
-
Job openings increased to 6.9 million in January, while hiring remained steady and separations declined slightly.
-
The federal budget deficit widened to $308 billion in February, bringing the fiscal-year deficit to just over $1 trillion.
-
Durable goods orders were essentially unchanged in January, following a decline in December.
-
The trade deficit narrowed sharply in January, driven by rising exports and a modest decline in imports.
-
Existing home sales increased 1.7% in February, though they remained slightly below year-ago levels.
-
Weekly jobless claims dipped to 213,000, while continuing claims declined modestly.
-
Gasoline prices jumped to $3.502 per gallon, reflecting the sharp rise in crude oil prices.
Eye on the Week Ahead
The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week as policymakers assess rising energy prices, persistent inflation pressures, slowing economic growth, and evolving geopolitical risks before determining whether to adjust interest rates.
Have a nice week!
Sincerely,
Robert G. Carpenter